Friday, 19 December 2008 by aurora_guy.
It’s only natural this time of year to kind of recap recent events in one way or another. I’d like to know what you think are the most important developments related to science and/or medicine in 2008, and why.
My picks:
#1. The election. I already get a sense of shifts in policy tones, which will impact alternative energy development and space exploration. Obama’s energy secretary nominee, Steven Chu, is a physicist for all occasions, demonstrated by his industrial experience (former head of the quantum electronics group at Bell Labs for many years and director at NVIDIA since 2004) as well as running Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory since August 2004. I recently discovered Dr. Chu serves as director of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, which focuses on educational, social, and environmental issues. The question remains, of course, about whether or not his leadership can get a seriously dysfunctional agency back on track. There’s a lot of inertia to overcome.
John Holdren, another physicist, is rumored to be top pick for science advisor. This clearly strengthens the upcoming administration’s ostensible commitment to alternative energy and reducing human impact on the environment. Dr. Holdren, a specialist in energy and technology policy and nuclear proliferation, also runs the Woods Hole Research Center, which has a lot to say about climate change.
NASA seems to be sweating the transition, but I have little doubt it’s for good reason. The back-to-the-moon-and-onto-Mars projects are about to run into major funding problems. Manned space exploration is all fine and dandy, but it is a hugely expensive endeavor. In today’s economy, an era when other important (unmanned) space-related projects lack talent and/or money, manned space seems a luxury, a sensible space science policy would cut back on the latter. We shall see how much. I predict continued political pressure to fund big manned-space programs in the US, since China made quite a spectacle over their first space walk a few months back.
#2. I have to confess I am torn here. I get all tingly over exo-planets, Mars polar scrapings, and dark energy. However, after much teeth-gnashing, I decided to give my vote to Jon Miller, a professor from Michigan State University, who has been tracking scientific literacy for two decades. Although his work covers quite a long time, he did get a fair amount of press in 2008. His latest survey placed the US second of 33 countries in rankings of adult scientific literacy. Sweden is first with a rate of 38%, and the US is right around 25%. By Dr. Miller’s definition, a person considered “scientifically literate” can read and comprehend, at least on a basic level, most of the articles written at a level of, say, the NY Times weekly science section.
The research shows that the strongest single predictor of scientific literacy in the US is having participated in a college science course. This argues in favor of retaining or strengthening general education requirements that include science courses for non-science majors.
The news is actually a bit depressing to me, since it does mean the vast majority of people in this country are scientifically illiterate. More and more important policy decisions seem to depend on a basic knowledge of scientific principles, whether it’s climate change or the teaching of creationism in the schools. Such a disparity in the general population means it’s easy for politicians to handily dismiss scientific arguments inconsistent with their economic or religious interests, and the majority of Americans would have no rational basis to disagree or to demand change.
#3. I thought there was a lot of interesting medical-related news in 2008, not the least of which were promising results from malaria vaccine trials in Africa. Malaria is a huge and deadly problem across vast regions of the globe. Nearly a million people per year die of the disease.
These are just trials on the vaccine, so I’ll have to split my vote here and also go with the body of research related to developing sources of stem cells and therapies derived from them. While embryonic stem cell research remains somewhat controversial, non-embryonic stem cells were in the news a lot in 2008. Just a couple of months ago, researchers at University of Tübingen in Germany reported in Nature they harvested samples from testicles to form stem cells. The team took spermatogonial cells, which normally mature into sperm, and used a series of chemicals to turn them into various cell types like skin, bone, muscle, and neurons.
Scientific American recently featured the work of Shinya Yamanaka . Dr. Yamanaka “led one of two teams that showed that normal human skin cells can be genetically reprogrammed into the equivalent of stem cells. These so-called induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS cells) seem to be essentially identical to embryonic stem cells and possess the ability to become any cell.”
Multiple methods of creating stem cells — as well as understanding their similarities and differences — go a long way towards developing treatment of serious injuries and illnesses. Although a bone marrow transplant is a well known stem cell therapy for some cancers and blood disorders, in theory, any condition in which there is tissue degeneration can be a potential candidate for such therapies. Potential applications include treatment of Parkinson’s disease, spinal cord injury, stroke, burns, heart disease, Type 1 diabetes, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, muscular dystrophies, and liver diseases. In addition, retinal regeneration with stem cells isolated from the eyes can lead to a possible cure for damaged or diseased eyes and may one day help reverse blindness. This is exciting stuff!
Your turn.
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Sunday, 9 November 2008 by aurora_guy.
Thank goodness the 2008 election is finished. I have to say my own mind was basically made up many months ago. My candidate didn’t win, nor would my candidate have won had the McPalin ticket swept the polls. So you could say I’m a bit of an outlier. This position afforded me a little luxury to follow the battle without a strong emotional investment in either major party.
I’m still shaking my head.
I tried to sift through the epithets and flaming arrows to find cogent, rational arguments for aligning with Democrat or Republican, and I really couldn’t. I’m slow sometimes, but I really tried. All I found was that the parties had a common theme: “We’re not the other guys.”
But, in fact, both parties have been behaving badly for years, with Republicans seeming to have departed from core principles in a more dramatic way than the Democrats. The Dems actually appear to me to have come back towards center without a will to fight for radical, sweeping social agendas. At the same time, the Republicans have abandoned any notion of small government or fiscal responsibility, and they have thought nothing of trampling individual rights into the dust.
In a post-election interview with NPR’s Morning Edition, Dick Armey gave a succinct, clear post-mortem for his party, reinforcing my own conclusion about moving far away from basic party ideals. Also, I thought one phrase he used was particularly apt for elected officials across the board. “Delinquency in office” has failed constituents and the country in a wholesale manner. The tripod of a federal government balanced between three branches has just about toppled over, yet neither party seems to have recognized the need to address this problem, either.
Thus, trying to follow presidential and local campaigns was a lot like tracking an argument between Ford and Chevy owners. Even normally rational folks lose their cool over cars. People seemed to be voting for a brand rather than any inherent differences in function or quality of the products.
Suddenly, this made some sense to me, especially given the general lack of critical thinking and the programmed-consumer nature of our society. I started reading up on related topics from marketing psychology to “magical thinking”, which proved immensely valuable in understanding what was going on. No wonder there was little substance to the arguments. The parties’ efforts and campaign dollars have been focused on very sophisticated consumer programming, not much more.
The up-side, of course, is that we’re much more homogenous in our thinking (or lack of it) than the executive producers of “Survivor - Washington, DC” would have us think. We really have come together as a nation.
Is this a great country, or what?
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Wednesday, 29 October 2008 by aurora_guy.
Alaskan politics is in a sad state. Our ethics-violating governor has gone maverick on Maverick. Our sole representative in the House, Don Young, has spent a TON of money on legal fees, supposedly as a result of recent criminal investigations, including connections to VECO, the key to Ted Stevens’ downfall. And…well, we all know about Ted.
Folks advocating Uncle Ted’s retirement on account of his octogenarian status simply have not seen him in person. I run into him now and then in various airports, and he is still quick on his feet. He is nearly 35 years my senior, and he wins any foot race at Sea-Tac hands down. Despite the convictions in federal court, he retains a substantial number of supporters, and he still has a chance to hang on to his Senate seat. Even dead people have been elected. I have to wonder why his supporters won’t face the obvious. As a felon, Ted Stevens cannot have a firearm, yet the NRA endorses him (and Don Young). As a felon he loses his right to the Permanent Fund Dividend, which is tantamount to losing citizenship. As a felon he likely can’t even vote for himself, yet he has the right to make laws affecting each and everyone of 300 million Americans. He can never keep his powerful status in the Senate. His utility to Alaskans, well-proven over the decades, has ended. Neither Ted nor Don can do the state any good with so many questions about their integrity.
I remember some years back walking into the office of State Senator Con Bunde, then fairly new to the seat having come from the State House. I was on a glad-handing tour representing a substantial portion of university employees. I wanted the legislators to put a human face to my constituents. Back then former Senator Murkowski ran the governor’s mansion with an iron fist, and the Alaska Republicans ran roughshod over the local Dems. Without so much as waiting for a proper introduction, Con blasted me with, “I don’t know why you’re here, but it’s our way or the highway. You’re not getting any funding or consideration if you disagree with us.” At no point did I get a sense the senator had the slightest concern for his constituents. He would only serve The Party, and The Party was corrupt top to bottom. I realized the rest of the voters and I were just along for the ride as far as the Alaska Republicans were concerned.
Murkowski was quick to alienate his base supporters with his hubris. Appointing his daughter to fill his seat in DC was a minor slap in the face in comparison to his later transgressions and eventual alienation of the entire legislature. Then came Sarah, who had little experience but a fair reputation as a small-town mayor. (The step up from a mayor of 30,000 versus governor of 600,000 is an easy one.) She had enough distance from the old coalition to seem like a breath of fresh air. But then, in winter up here nothing has an aroma, not even rotten garbage.
I recall the old saying about people getting the government they deserve.
Alaskans have made the political headlines of late, but please don’t think we’re all that way. We just happen to vote for those who are.
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Wednesday, 24 September 2008 by aurora_guy.
Several years ago I attended a gathering of satellite industry professionals hosted by MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates in Richmond, BC. In his opening remarks, company co-founder Dr. John MacDonald wanted us to understand the ramifications of what he termed the “data-information gap”which be believed limited the commercial viability of satellite remote sensing. He asserted that satellite systems were “technology-pushed” rather than “user-pulled.” He meant that new spaceborne systems had evolved primarily as a result of the interest in technology development rather than any sufficient demand from an end-user market.
Building, launching, and operating spacecraft is extraordinarily expensive. (For example, the new GEOEYE spacecraft reportedly cost over $500 million to get up.) Despite analysts’ long-held predictions of a burgeoning market for space-based imagery and other data sets, at the time of the gathering in Richmond, commercial ventures like Space Imaging had been struggling to make ends meet. The missing end-users, in Dr. MacDonald’s view, were largely decision-makers; i.e., executives and senior authorities, not scientists or GIS specialists. They had the necessary influence to make capital available for commercial space ventures of this sort. Existing satellite systems could produce terabytes of data each day, yet there were few, if any, tools to turn this data into information useful to decision-makers. This was the root of Dr. MacDonald’s data-information gap. Until the gap was narrowed considerably, commercial remote sensing from space would remain economically unviable.
The gap may indeed be narrowing. These are exciting times in the business. Secret government agencies are no longer the sole keepers of the domain. God bless Google Earth. If any one development of late has brought satellite remote sensing to the common person’s desktop, this has. I even know a fur trapper using satellite weather and photos to plan his adventures in the Alaskan bush. News organizations have been using satellite imagery regularly for several years. Humanitarian and emergency management organizations have become much more sophisticated consumers for planning and responses. Firefighters use products from NOAA, NASA, and USGS satellites to coordinate their efforts. Epidemiologists can predict disease outbreaks and spread with satellite-derived products. Community planners and developers frequently support their zoning work and business decisions using photos from space. Satellite remote sensing is even a way for ordinary citizens to keep governments honest. UCLA researchers recently published an interesting analysis using Air Force weather satellite data to conclude the troop surge in Iraq may not have contributed as much to the decrease in violence in Baghdad as ethnic cleansing of neighborhoods had done.
The gap is narrowing, but it’s far from gone. Many advancements are in the pipeline, and the evolution is bound to be quite dramatic. As an analog, consider the Global Positioning System. Not so long ago it was confined to military and government use, and now GPS technology is nearly ubiquitous. Chances are good that you even carry it around every day with a cellular phone in your pocket.
We are all part of the revolution. (Isn’t it cool to be a revolutionary?) I can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings!
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Sunday, 21 September 2008 by aurora_guy.
I have no professional background in economics or high finance. I’m a little guy, who felt the crash coming and pulled my money out of investments some time back. I knew a bad deal when I saw it. Now I see another bad deal, a potentially catastrophic deal between Wall Street and Washington, this Corporate New Deal of the 21st Century, and there’s not a thing I can do about it.
The Administration proposes to place the Secretary of the Treasury in an extraordinary and extralegal position of authority without any responsibility whatsoever to Congress, the body constitutionally established to set laws and to authorize funds. Once again, fear and panic are used to rush through under cover of darkness a complete abdication of their responsibilities and eliminating any thread of accountability to the taxpayers. (This is the same body of government that voted several years back to make it virtually impossible for folks like me to seek debt relief by declaring bankruptcy.) We are all once again subjugated and rendered irrelevant except for our pocketbooks.
The latest Wall Street bailout concept proposes to buy up a humongous amount of bad debt using valuation methods yet to be determined and without oversight or review of any kind. Take a look at a couple of sections from the draft text:
Sec. 2. Purchases of Mortgage-Related Assets.
(a) Authority to Purchase.–The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the Secretary, mortgage-related assets from any financial institution having its headquarters in the United States.
(b) Necessary Actions.–The Secretary is authorized to take such actions as the Secretary deems necessary to carry out the authorities in this Act, including, without limitation:
(1) appointing such employees as may be required to carry out the authorities in this Act and defining their duties;
(2) entering into contracts, including contracts for services authorized by section 3109 of title 5, United States Code, without regard to any other provision of law regarding public contracts;
(3) designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Government, and they shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Government as may be required of them;
(4) establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase mortgage-related assets and issue obligations; and
(5) issuing such regulations and other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to define terms or carry out the authorities of this Act.
…
Sec. 8. Review.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
Concerns like mine are readily dismissed by those who are more “sophisticated” and “knowledgeable” of the universe of capital markets. “It’s too complicated for you to understand. Trust us.” I don’t need to be a PhD economist or a Democrat to grasp the idea that the bound knot of capital flow we have today arose from wild-eyed speculation and creative bookkeeping. This is Enron-nomics on a massive scale.
Treasury’s move is supposed to calm the markets and to restore confidence in the US financial system, yet there isn’t even the most tenuous suggestion of how the government will recoup a reasonable portion of the handout. For that matter, the proposed legislation doesn’t even mandate recovery of any kind.
As an investor and taxpayer, what exactly am I supposed to feel good about?
Recommended reading:
Why Paulson is Wrong
Luigi Zingales
Robert C. Mc Cormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance
University of Chicago - GSB
Why You Should Hate the Treasury Bailout Proposal at nakedcapitalism.com
Posted in Politics & Society | Print | 10 Comments »
Tuesday, 16 September 2008 by aurora_guy.
The pro- and anti-Palin rallies last week in Alaska were, shall I say, unimpressive; e.g., http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-85837. I admit it. We Alaskans don’t know how to rally effectively. We’re a gun-totin’, fur-topped, Carhartt’s-clad bunch of individualists — yes, even “liberals” are armed here — but by God, we can’t organize ourselves out of a phone booth with a map and an Indian guide. We’re passionate about our beliefs, we embrace our unique position in geography with great vigor, and yet we’re a bunch of bumblers when it comes to expressing ourselves as a unified body. It doesn’t matter what size the group. Our efforts are just lame. Period. So I ask, “Why?”
I think about these things on my drive to and from work. Alaska, after all, is a land of great distances, and when scanning the horizon along the endless miles of willow and birch for a 1500 lb bull moose or invading Russians, one’s mind tends to wander.
(Before going on, I should acknowledge the anti- and pro-Iraq war demonstrators, who made a regular showing for a few years even at subzero temperatures at a key intersection in Fairbanks. Their opposing displays of signage were almost quaint. God bless them, but neither group made an effective pitch to sway passersby, nor did they ever convey any sense that Alaskans were for or against the war.)
I think it’s a compound problem, actually. First of all, we all operate on bush time — not Bush time; bush, lower case. It’s hard to get any group in Alaska to show up on time for any event. Even “fast food” takes on a whole new meaning above latitude 60 degrees north. Second, we all share this reluctance to join any group that would have us as a member. Third, we’re busy. In summer months, we’re fishing to fill the freezer. September brings moose hunting season and wood chopping. In the winter, well, it’s just cold, and we have trouble starting our cars, or we’ve gone on vacation to Hawaii or Las Vegas with our Permanent Fund Dividend checks.
I would suggest to those seeking insight into Ms. Palin’s general acceptability to the Alaskan populace to avoid any inference from public demonstrations. We’re a hard-to-pin-down sort of folk, in large part because of the demands of where we live and the peculiar nature of our lifestyles and specific motivations. We are not like you Outsiders.
Besides, we only have three Electoral College votes, so what difference does it make? Make up your own minds!
Please stop calling. We’re busy getting ready for winter.
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