Russian Roulette

I found this post at National Review Online as blood-curdling as anything I’ve seen lately. An anonymous friend of Rich Lowry is suggesting that the U.S. Sixth Fleet take up residence in Sevastopol when the Russian fleet is booted out by Ukraine.

Russia’s invasion of Georgia has reminded us what a dangerous world we live in. Various armchair strategists have pointed out the unfeasibility of a NATO military response (at least, one that involves ground troops). However, the real obstacle is political, as in “political will”. Almost no one on either side of the Iraq war issue is willing to let any NATO soldiers die for Georgia by Russian arms — not the anti-war, anti-American left, nor the anti-Islamofascist right.

Which raises the question, and the spectre: what action by Russia would it take to provoke a response from NATO? What if Putin embarks on a course that aims to reassemble the Soviet Union, in “authoritarian”, not “totalitarian” form? Even right-wing analysts would pause if global totalitarian domination is not in the balance, merely “regional” rearrangement.

Lowry’s friend is apparently in favor of “forward defense“, as the euphemism goes. But moving into Sevastopol would be provocative in the extreme. Russia would likely take it as well as Kennedy took to the idea of Russian missiles in Cuba. And their response might be similar — a naval blockade, possibly initiated during the buildup phase of basing, “before we are ready”.

So I think Sevastopol is a non-starter, though the mere contemplation of the move brings a frisson of remembrance of childhood rounds of Diplomacy.

But returning to the question, here are some other non-starters: (1) letting Putin grab as much territory as he wants, (2) drawing a line in the dirt somewhere west of Ukraine, (3) begging, (4) hand-wringing, (5) hoping, (6) strong words from the UN Security Council, (7) starting a new league of democracies, and (8) depending on the French to lead the way.

Here are some constructive suggestions: (1) install ballistic missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic, right now, (2) admit Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Ukraine to NATO, and fast-track Albania, Croatia, and anyone else willing to get in line, including Sweden and Finland,  (3) initiate joint military training with Ukraine, right now, (4) call Putin’s bluff and immediately withdraw from the INF treaty, citing Russian aggression against Georgia as the reason, and (5) release RFQs for the development of a new generation of stealthy, GPS-guided, intermediate range missiles. The intent of all these moves is not to provoke a war — for which Putin is not ready — but to prevent a war by rearranging Putin’s strategic calculation. He must be made to understand that the Georgian invasion was a blunder, and not “audacity“.

We live in a dangerous time. Again. As always.

[h/t Rand Simberg, once again.]

This entry was posted on Friday, 15 August 2008 at 00:11 and is filed under Politics & Society. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.

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